You can watch the whole 100 strong bestseller list to get your own list together. If in a lazy mode, just read on to get the top five chewed, digested and spit back to you right on.
Top spot
Toy Story 3 – DVD version
http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?lt1=_blank&bc1=000000&IS2=1&bg1=FFFFFF&fc1=000000&lc1=0000FF&t=expatanchorne-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&m=amazon&f=ifr&md=10FE9736YVPPT7A0FBG2&asins=B00275EHJG
First Runner up
Toy Story 3 – Four Disc BluRay/DVD combo version
Second Runner up
The Pacific (HBO Miniseries) on DVD
- The Sound of Music 45th anniversary edition on BluRay
- The Pacific (HBO miniseries) on BluRay
Any themes or trends to note?
Family animation, patriotic highs and nostalgic waves of baby-boomers rulez the katching.
Go get your copies 
Cheers,
Dez
Seems like the HUF hit a major resistance against both EUR and USD earlier this month. But this is statement wouldn't paint the right picture. So, drill down in the charted technicality.
USDHUF
Note the support area (1) between 192 and 200 (resistance for the HUF) and the concerning MACD (2) and RSI (3) lower lows. In my world a support that meets indicator lower lows equals strong reversal signal.
EURHUF
Note the support resistance line (1) at 277. The key difference to the USDHUF is that there is no clear outlook readable from the technical indicators. Check how the MACD is making a high (2) and turns back South, while the RSI is making a new low (3) turning North. It feels like we have found a nice channel where neither sellers nor buyers are in control. Albeit for buyers the clouds might be taken away by recent higher lows of October.
Ideas
USDHUF you can try to go long when support area is penetrated to the North. With care!
EURHUF if you got the balls go for a short scalp around 277 with extreme care. For a long position be patient until 277 is broken to the upside.
Good luck and don't ever try to blame me for taking any of my ideas too serious!
Trade on,
Dez
The last week was roughly like a holiday, except I have had a few tasks to do. One thing I had on my to do list was to reply to the simple question from @SimpleEnglish:
“Where is the HUF headed?”
First things first
I do hold a really tiny natural short position only 
at this very moment. Thus, who do frigging hell cares
On a less funny note
I am long EURHUF even though I don’t feel the EUR doing well. Fundamentally speaking.
Yes, I agree when you go and say: “But you should support your country isn’t it?” Fine, if you have asked I’ll reply. I do support Hungary. But the Hungarian Forint to me is not a solid representation of the country, but a simple currency (not even money). As it is more an IOU note from the Hungarian Government that I can’t really support as far as economics and populist comments are going these days.
Enough of nagging
Here’s what I think about the direction the EURHUF will take in the immediate future:
It will go South to touch or pierce 278 again, BECAUSE the immediate trend is DOWN.
It will stay in a tight range / consolidate between 278 and 284 THEN break out depending on short term sentiment of the market BECAUSE the price is under it’s moving average (purple line) on the picture
It will go North and touch / break out above 287 BECAUSE Stochastics in oversold territory and recent pop off of the symmetric triangles lower support line
(click on image to enlarge)
If I’d have to take one of the above listed options I’d go with the second.
Enjoy a great weekend folks!
Cheers,
Dez
Last Sunday’s election wasn’t a huge surprise to most of the politics savvy thinkers in Hungary. To the extent that I almost forgot why my fellow twitterer@SimpleEnglish potentially have asked about the EURHUF relations trend.
I’ll keep it short and sweet. To stay with the ‘trend’.
As I was a bit slow to respond to the request the events ruled out before I wrote this post. Thus, I just made a few markers for future reference so you see why is this happened. Of course the Fidesz quasi victory in the first round of elections pulling out a CDS price lowering on the Hungarian National debt has helped tremendously.
Future, I’d look for a pop of lower Bollinger band (upper tier of the chart), around the previous low around 261,5. Reinforced with a reversal in the RSI reading – raising from under 30 (middle tier of the chart). Coupled with a Stochastics reversal pop from under 12 (lower tier of the chart). Not a firm believer of 264 as a support for the EUR falling. Especially, until Greece stays on the slide pulling hard on the Euro.
So, if you are looking to buy in Hungary (financed in EUR) you’d have to wait quite some to get a reasonable exchange rate. While if you are Hungarian trying to figure when to buy your vacation Euros (less and less popular anyways). You shall not hurry at all, since most probably the range of 262 – 266 will hold for months to come. Except Fidesz starts to print money (or communicate so) in the meantime.
Cheers and love the carry,
Dez
It seems we’ll have the most expensive voting season next Spring. At least the party budgets’ will have to be replenished. As you can learn it from the new ruling of the City Major – that will spill down to each districts by 1 Jan 2009.
Practically, the system works as follows:
- You take the hourly parking fee: that is derived from the BKV – aka Budapest Transport Co. – single ticket price with a special multiplier*. In zone 1 – that encompasses District 5 and the better part of District 1 and central bits of District 2 – the multiplier is 1,25.
- Then you multiply that sum with a few hundred (based on parking zones as well),
- To arrive to the yearly payable base sum north of HUF 37 500 (or EUR 140) or a bootilicious HUF 94 thousand (or €350) for zone 1.
- Based on the local district major’s budget hunger you might get a discount on this.
See how this will alter the central Budapest parking prices and demand?
Don’t park in the second line,
Dez
(Original newsbite in Hungarian)
Another Economic event in Hungary that had no real difference in the direction of the EURHUF rate. See the newsbite about the base rate cut of 50 base point.
The key question is where the EURHUF will go from here. I believe the global conditions stays (with the immediate past trends) slightly bullish but cautious. If my feeling holds, the direction will be down to touch at 265ish (as it did before), where you’ll have a chance to buy EUR (if the RSI turns North + the black Stochastics line turns North crossing the red Stochastics line). See the chart below.
UPDATE:
Just as I was too slow to publish due to heavier trading activity I am publishing with this update.
It was really interesting to see what might be a trend reversal. Please note the circled and highlighted areas of higher lows and higher highs + the ascending RSI channel (just below the main chart window) below:
I believe the EURHUF will first test a primary resistance of ascending channel bottom at around 268 within the next few days. Especially, if the global markets will turn South, the EURHUF will go North.
What might be the target exchange rate for the next week to come?
If the above mentioned resistance will work out. I would not be suprised to see EURHUF anything between 282 and 287.
Enjoy your week and use above analysis at your own risk!
Cheers,
Dez
Earlier posts about EURHUF:
Virtual Analyst forecasts EURHUF at 240, 17 August 2009
Wondered why the EURHUF was jumping bullish earlier this week, 7 June 2009
How moody is the HUF?, 25 May 2009
Wait to buy your apartment in Hungary, 15 May 2009
Forex swings could drive demand for Hungarian residential property, 28 April 2009
Property rental prices squeezed by 30% in the student market? I’d like to see factoids and not market data taken from different niches. I.e. upper end of the market (above €2500 where it might happen that you can squeeze rentals) and the lower end of the market where you will find smaller amounts. Show me somebody who have rented a €300 furnished student studio for €210.
Read the newsbite here Property rental prices squeezed across the board.
Plunging to 30% of 2008 figures (or 25% of the 2007 heydays) is not a complete surprise though. Especially, if you take into consideration:
- how volatile the currency markets are (see – mostly - my posts on EURHUF from the last few months only).
- along with the homeland shrinking of the Irish, Spanish and British housing markets,
- then add the problems related to financing. (Say credit crunch more simply.)
Cheers,
Dez
P.S.: Original newsbite here
Here’s the newsbite back from early July when a Virtual analyst forecasts Ft 240 euro. Now, back then I already drafted this post but due to perrsonal commitments I could not finish it up.
By now, the point I was to make became absolutely hit. With the EURHUF marching past its RSI resistance (see chart below). Now, as both the Bollinger upper band seems to set out a pop down (resistance) from present level. Plus the exchange rate of 275, really close to the primary target of EURHUF at 276-277, after the breakout has already been working as a resistance. I see a possible pullback towards 270 and then some oscillating (sideways) moves for the coming few weeks between 263 and 277. Except there would be a major movement in the region or the global sentiment.
Euro against the Hungarian Forint on 17 August 2009 with trendlines, Bollinger bands, RSI and Stochastics
Chart is from Quote.com (click the link for the original and updated chart).
And no, I can’t see the HUF 240 EUR for a long long time 
…
Wish you a great end of Summer folks, hoping you could sneak in a few weeks of laying back!
Cheers,
Dez
Just by the lake Balaton the first bicycle rider oriented accommodation has opened at Balatonalmádi (the Kristóf Motel & Camping). Rooms for HUF 3 – 6 thousand (or €14 – €23).
Allez les biker !
Read the Hungarian news article here: http://tinyurl.com/m9wjob
